Climate Change and food security - what's the link?

"All aspects of food security are potentially affected by Climate Change including food access, utilisation and price stability" (IPCC, 2014:488)

Here's a list of what the FAO considered to be the impacts of Climate Change on agriculture. 

1. "The Carbon Dioxide fertilisation effect of increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.
2. Increasing mean, maximum and minimum temperatures.
3. Gradual changes in precipitation - increase in frequency, duration and intensity of dry spells and droughts. Also changes in the timing, duration, intensity and geographic location of rain and snowfall.
4. Increase in the frequency and intensity of storms and floods.
5. Greater seasonal weather variability and changes in start/end of growing seasons."(FAO, 2008:12).

Here's what the IPCC think.

1. Increased average temperatures
2. Changes to rainfall pattern
3. Climate extremes (heatwaves)
4. Changes in pests/diseases
5. Changes in atmospheric CO2
6. Changes in sea level.

Some reports have more positive attitudes than others. The FAO Climate Change and Food Security Framework Document notes that climate change could cause increased production in temperate climates which could potentially offset lower yields occurring in tropical climates.

Gregory et al. discuss why the impacts of Climate Change on food security will vary on a global scale. The diagram below best explains this, but it indicates that food systems are affected by "different socio-economic and bio-physical factors" (p2139). This means that factors such as economic status, level of dependence on a resource and how often a country is exposed to environmental changes will influence its ability to recover from more severe climate changes, and this will exacerbate or mitigate the impact of the event on food security.

Factors affecting food security - from Ingram et al., 2005 in Gregory et al., 2005

My main interest is fisheries resource management and it is interesting to consider what impact the changing climate is going to have on marine resources. Fish stocks are already heavily exploited as humans have decimated the stocks through over harvesting. Climate Change is another challenge that the already weakened ocean now has to face, on top of ocean acidification, plastic pollution,invasive species and destruction of habitats, to name just a few.  The population size and distribution of fish stocks is already changing, as well as their resilience to the other issues mentioned before. This will also further affect the livelihoods and wellbeing of those in areas such as Sub-Saharan Africa where people depend on fish as their primary source of income and/or protein, as it will become increasingly difficult to predict the temporal and spatial distribution of the fish stocks that they rely on. 

The population prediction table below, from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs indicates that world population growth shows no signs of slowing down. It is therefore crucial that we find a way to mitigate against the impacts of Climate Change on food security, so that we are able to provide for this vast global population in the future.

What is Genetic Modification?

It seems a good idea to quickly define what GM is and how it came about, before going on to talk about how it fits into the Climate Change debate in future posts.

So.

What is GM?

My go-to dictionary is the Oxford Dictionary of Environment and Conservation (Park, 2010). Here GM is described under 'Genetic Engineering' as:

"The selective, deliberate alteration of the genetic makeup (DNA) of an organism by removing, modifying, or adding genes to a chromosome in order to change the information it contains, which enables cells or organisms to make new or different substances (proteins) or perform new functions." (Park, 2010).

As definitions sometimes vary amongst authors in a field, I also went to the World Health Organisation (WHO) for another definition:

"Genetically modified organisms (GMOs) can be defined as organisms (i.e. plants, animals or microorganisms) in which the genetic material (DNA) has been altered in a way that does not occur naturally by mating and/or natural recombination. The technology is often called “modern biotechnology” or “gene technology”, sometimes also “recombinant DNA technology” or “genetic engineering”. It allows selected individual genes to be transferred from one organism into another, also between non related species" (WHO,www).

Key people and dates

Gregor Mendel - 1865 - "the father of modern genetics" - developed the concept of selective cross-breeding to produce hybrids

Watson and Crick - 1953 - put forward the Double Helix structure of DNA

Cohen and Boyer - 1973 - DNA cloning technique developed

Cohen, Chang and Boyer - 1974 - creation of first GMO (Genetically Modified Organism)

1980+ - introduction of transgenics (DNA from more a foreign animal)

Late 1980s - first GM crop (tomatoes) on sale in China

1995 - first GM potato crop approved safe for commercial use in America (Bt potato, approved by EPA)

1995 - birth of Dolly the Sheep,  first cloned animal born

1997 - GMO-related food safety regulations enforced. Produce must pass before going on sale.

1998 - first GM labelling obligation rules enforced to make it clear and give consumers a choice

Source

Wider impacts of GM?

Source: Robert Ariail

I found this to be an amusing representation of the potential wider environmental fears associated with Genetic Modification. From the cartoon, it seems that the bear has eaten the genetically modified salmon, resulting in unforeseen changes in the bear's genetic makeup by giving it the ability to jump streams like a fish. Clearly the cartoonist is being humorous, but it indicates that some consider GM to be dangerous on the grounds that we cannot be sure of its wider impacts across ecosystems in the future.

About this blog

I've recently been interested in the potential impacts that climate change will have on our food supply in the future. It seems to me that with global warming putting so much pressure on our planet, and the increase in population showing no signs of letting up, we are going to need to think about how to ensure food security for the global population in the future.

This blog forms part of the assessment for one of my environmental modules. I will be looking at what role Genetic Modification may, or may not, have in mitigating the impacts of climate change in the future. It is not going to be shouty for or against the debate, the reason I have chosen this topic is to explore it further and see whether or not GM could act as our 'secret weapon' to help beat climate change. 

I will examine articles, papers and other things which come to light about the GM debate and its role in climate change, and I have no strong views either way. After a few weeks of research and blogging, I might have some more views, but I think considering both sides of the story is a good place to start.